Friday Brief

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Nine justices walked in this morning and handed Trump the biggest legal loss of his second term. He responded with a press conference and a brand new tariff.. The Supreme Court came down 6-3 and struck down Trump's tariffs imposed under IEEPA, calling them unconstitutional. The majority opinion said Congress never clearly authorized the president to levy tariffs that way, and that was that. Trump called it a disgrace, said he was ashamed of certain justices, and then walked straight to the podium and announced a new 10% global tariff under a different law entirely. So the tariffs aren't gone. They're just on different legal footing now. The market moved up on the news, but only barely, which tells you the reaction was more "okay, now what" than relief. The uncertainty didn't clear. It shifted. Outside of that, it was a quiet week that happened to have some loud individual names, a strong earnings stretch, and a silver market that absolutely ran. More on all of that below.

Equities spent most of the week in a holding pattern before today's Supreme Court ruling gave a modest final lift. Breadth was broadly constructive across sectors, with Energy, Industrials, and Technology all contributing positively. The bulk of the week's volatility was concentrated in individual earnings reactions rather than macro-driven index pressure. Consumer sentiment data and residual tariff uncertainty kept a ceiling on gains, but the underlying tone improved as earnings season wound toward its final stretch. Healthcare was the one sector acting as a drag. Volume was in line with seasonal averages.

Energy led for the week, followed closely by Industrials, with the Supreme Court's tariff ruling accelerating both as import cost pressures eased. Technology continued its recovery against a backdrop of strong earnings from AI-adjacent names. Financials advanced modestly on rate stability expectations. Healthcare was the only sector in the red, weighed down by regulatory uncertainty and sector-specific earnings disappointments. The YTD divergence between Energy and Technology remains one of the clearest expressions of how the market has repriced around macro risk in 2026.

Crypto spent the week mostly flat, which stands in sharp contrast to the volatility seen in precious metals and equities. Bitcoin held its range with minimal movement. Ethereum and Solana followed suit, posting nominal gains that did little to reverse their deep YTD drawdowns. XRP was the only asset in the red for the week. The asset class has been decoupled from both the tariff narrative and the broader risk-on trade this week. YTD losses remain severe across the board, with Ethereum and Solana both down roughly a third from January 1. No major catalysts emerged to change the positioning picture.

XRP

XRP was the only asset in negative territory this week, making it the standout mover by default in an otherwise dormant crypto market. The move had no clear single catalyst. XRP remains sensitive to regulatory headlines and legal developments around Ripple's ongoing proceedings, and in the absence of a new court update or major partnership announcement, the drift lower reflected thin volume and weak retail participation rather than any fundamental shift.

It was a standout week for commodities across the board, led by silver in an emphatic way. Gold extended its already significant YTD run on persistent safe-haven demand. Oil staged a strong recovery, and copper moved higher as industrial sentiment held up despite the macro noise. Silver was the story of the week, running well beyond the rest of the complex on a combination of structural demand dynamics, precious metals momentum, and short-covering after weeks of elevated volatility. The Supreme Court ruling initially sent gold and silver lower but both quickly snapped back. The broader commodity complex continues to trade in a way that reflects pressure, not resolution, in the macro environment.

The week's commodity moves were driven by a convergence of macro forces that rarely show up simultaneously. The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs introduced a sudden shift in the trade backdrop. Import costs across global supply chains dropped in theory, which helped oil recover on demand optimism, while lifting copper on the assumption that industrial activity would face fewer headwinds. Gold and silver dipped briefly on the ruling before snapping back, a signal that the market does not view the legal resolution as the end of the trade uncertainty story. With Trump immediately pivoting to new tariff authority under a different law, the macro tension remained intact. Silver's move this week is best understood separately: it was as much an AG earnings story and a structural silver deficit story as it was a macro play.