Friday Brief

It was a rough one this week, and honestly a strange one to write about because the biggest story had nothing to do with earnings or the Fed. It's a war. The US-Israel conflict with Iran has been rattling markets since late February, but this week it escalated to the point where stagflation stopped being a word analysts throw around and started feeling real. Q4 GDP was revised down hard to 0.7%. Core inflation keeps climbing. Oil hit $100. The Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. Three straight losing weeks for the major indexes. This is the kind of setup where nothing feels safe, and the FOMC meeting next week only adds more pressure to an already complicated picture.

Three consecutive losing weeks for all major indexes. The dominant pressure came from the Iran war, which has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and prompted the IEA to call it the largest oil supply disruption in history. Compounding that, Q4 2025 GDP was revised sharply down to 0.7% annualized growth while core PCE inflation moved higher, reinforcing the stagflation narrative. The VIX hovered near 27 throughout the week. Breadth was poor across most sessions, with declining issues outnumbering advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Energy remained the only clear sector winner.

Energy led the week, supported by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz supply disruption keeping crude elevated. Healthcare sold off after Centene's ACA enrollment warning dragged the sector lower. Financials declined on stagflation fears and tightening credit concerns. Technology was the only other sector in positive territory, carried by AI memory momentum in semiconductors despite broad macro headwinds.

Crypto bucked the equity selloff, posting gains across all four tracked assets. Bitcoin found partial support from geopolitical uncertainty, drawing some flows as a non-traditional store of value. Despite equities posting their third straight losing week, digital assets held firm and recovered modestly off recent 2026 lows. All four tracked assets remain well underwater year to date but showed clear relative strength this week.

SOLANA

Solana led crypto movers this week, driven by renewed developer activity and risk-on rotation within digital assets. With flows moving up the crypto risk curve, SOL outperformed as investors sought upside leverage beyond Bitcoin. Improving sentiment across alt layer-1s broadly supported the move, with Solana benefiting from its positioning as the highest-beta name among the major tracked assets.

Commodities fell broadly this week. Silver led the declines under risk-off selling and dollar pressure. Gold gave back gains despite continued geopolitical tension as dollar strength offset the safe-haven bid. Oil pulled back slightly after its dramatic year-to-date run, though it remains a central market story. Copper softened on stagflation-linked industrial demand concerns as slowing growth weighed on base metal sentiment.

The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure remain the dominant commodity macro driver. While oil pulled back modestly on the week, the year-to-date run reflects a structural shock the IEA called the largest supply disruption in oil market history. Precious metals faced headwinds from dollar strength even as geopolitical risk stayed elevated. Copper's softness reflects the stagflation narrative directly: slowing growth paired with rising inflation is a difficult environment for base metals reliant on industrial demand. The GDP revision to 0.7% added pressure across the complex.

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