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Your Friday Market Brief
Opening Insight
This was a week that split clean down the middle. Thursday was ugly. Tech got hammered, the Dow gave up 50,000, and you could feel positioning unwind in real time. Today brought some relief after inflation came in cooler than expected, but it wasn't enough to flip sentiment back. AI names stayed under pressure while industrials and energy actually held up. The question isn't about upside anymore. It's about how solid the foundation really is. Margin pressure is real, and the market's starting to wonder what happens when the datacenter buildout slows down.
Market Recap
Equities closed the week down roughly 1.5% across major indices. Tech led the decline on datacenter capex scrutiny. Energy and industrials held ground. Financials sold off hard. Volatility spiked mid-week before settling today on softer-than-expected inflation prints. Breadth remained negative. The Dow gave up its 50,000 milestone. Risk appetite stayed muted despite today's stabilization.
The S&P 500 finished the week down approximately 1.5%, closing near 6,800. Thursday's selloff took the index into negative territory for the year before today's modest recovery.
The Nasdaq declined roughly 1.5% for the week, underperforming as megacap tech names faced renewed AI spending skepticism. The index remains under pressure from valuation resets.
Stocks That Won The Week
RIVIAN
$RIVN
+20%
Q4 earnings beat on both lines. R2 SUV launch confirmed for Q2. Delivery guidance of 62,000–67,000 units implies 50%+ growth. First annual gross profit achieved.
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL
$MGA
+27.54%
Q4 results crushed estimates with $2.18 EPS vs. $1.81 consensus. Margin expansion drove the beat. 2026 guidance raised. Strong free cash flow supports aggressive buyback.
NEBIUS
$NBIS
+14.73%
AI infrastructure demand remains insatiable. Capacity expansion from 1 gigawatt to 2.5+ gigawatts. Supply-demand imbalance in datacenter GPUs supports pricing power and growth trajectory.
Stocks That Lost The Week
ROBINHOOD
$HOOD
-10.7%
Revenue miss at $1.28B vs. $1.33B consensus. Crypto revenue collapsed 38% year-over-year to $221M. Trading activity slowed despite broader business strength. Markets focused on the miss.
ASTERA LABS
$ALAB
-22.37%
CFO Mike Tate stepped down despite Q4 beat. Margin concerns surfaced around Amazon sales mix. Guidance strong but not enough to offset leadership uncertainty and profitability questions.
EXPIDITORS INTERNATIONAL
$EXPD
-12%
Freight and logistics sector facing weak demand. Volume pressures and margin compression weighed on valuation. Stock sold off sharply mid-week on broader industrial sentiment and positioning reset.
Sector Snapshot
Sector | Weekly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
Technology - $XLK | -1.62% | -4.14% |
Energy - $XLE | +2.32% | +21.51% |
Financials - $XLF | -4.71% | -5.78% |
Industrials - $XLI | +0.72% | +11.92% |
Healthcare - $XLV | +0.45% | +1.81% |
Energy led as supply dynamics and positioning favored producers. Financials collapsed as rate cut expectations shifted and exposure to struggling tech names weighed on sentiment. Technology weakness centered on AI capex skepticism and valuation concerns. Industrials and healthcare absorbed defensive flows as investors rotated away from high-beta growth. Clear divergence between sectors tied to the AI narrative and those insulated from it.
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Crypto Recap
Crypto traded sideways with modest divergence across major assets. Bitcoin dipped while Ethereum and Solana posted small gains. Risk appetite remained subdued following the broader October drawdown. Regulatory uncertainty and weak retail engagement kept pressure on altcoins. Trading volumes stayed below recent peaks as institutional flows remained cautious.
Performance Overview
Asset | Weekly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin ($BTC) | -0.41% | -21.35% |
Ethereum ($ETH) | +1.04% | -30.82% |
Solana ($SOL) | +0.51% | -31.73% |
XRP ($XRP) | -0.75% | -23.05% |
Mover Of The Week
ETHEREUM
Ethereum led major assets higher as network activity showed resilience. Developer upgrades and staking dynamics supported modest outperformance. Institutional positioning in ETH remained more stable than Bitcoin amid rotation into Layer 1 protocols.
Commodities Recap
Metals sold off hard across the board. Silver led declines, copper retreated, and oil pulled back. Gold held nearly flat despite profit-taking pressure. Industrial metals reflected concerns over global manufacturing demand. Energy commodities responded to oversupply fears and weak seasonal consumption. Precious metals faced positioning unwinds after the record rally.
Asset | Weekly Change | YTD Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold - $XAUUSD | -0.08% | +16.34% | Flat week, held up despite profit-taking |
Oil - $CL1! | -2.15% | +9.30% | Oversupply fears pressure prices |
Copper - $HG1! | -2.29% | +1.55% | Industrial demand concerns weigh |
Silver - $XAGUSD | -5.63% | +5.69% | Leveraged positions unwound fast |
Macro Drivers
Gold's historic run stalled as traders locked in gains ahead of February positioning. Oil faced twin pressures: persistent oversupply narratives and seasonal weakness in refining demand. Copper held above trend on expectations for infrastructure spending and electrification tailwinds. Silver's sharp drop reflected leveraged positioning unwinds after rapid gains. Broader commodity weakness tied to macro uncertainty and dollar strength.
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Final Take
So here's what we know. The rally's foundation isn't as solid as it looked a week ago. Tech couldn't hold up, and defensives didn't rally either. What we got was hesitation. Not panic, but definitely not confidence. The inflation print kept the rate conversation alive, but it didn't answer the bigger question everyone's asking: can margins actually hold if companies keep pouring money into capex while demand starts cooling off? Energy staying strong while financials collapsed tells you the market's repositioning for something different. Crypto stayed flat, commodities gave back their gains, and the gap between winners and losers got wider. The next few weeks matter. Earnings either prove the spending story works or they expose the cracks. Right now the pressure's building, not resolving.
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