In partnership with
Your Friday Market Brief
Opening Insight
The market finally got a name. Kevin Warsh. Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell at the Fed landed this morning and the repricing was immediate. Gold fell over 8%, silver collapsed 30%, and the dollar spiked. But the Warsh announcement was just the punctuation on a week that had already been building pressure. Earnings season delivered in volume. Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Mastercard all reported. Some beat, some missed, but the real story was what they said about spending. AI infrastructure costs are climbing, and the market is starting to question whether the returns justify the scale. Then UnitedHealth dropped 19% after reporting its first revenue decline since 1989, dragging healthcare names down with it on Medicare Advantage rate cuts. Meanwhile, telecom names rallied hard on subscriber growth that nobody expected. It was a week where the surface action looked calm, but underneath, money was rotating fast. Warsh gave everyone permission to reassess. The question now is whether this is a reset or a reversal. Positioning had gotten crowded. Metals had run too far. Some tech multiples had stretched past fundamentals. Today cleared a lot of that out in a few hours. What's left is a market that's pricing in tighter policy, higher real rates, and less certainty about where the easy money flows next.
Market Recap
S&P 500 up 1.2% for January despite Friday weakness. Telecom names rallied 10%+ on subscriber beats. Semiconductor stocks gained on stabilization signals. Healthcare stocks fell broadly as UNH policy shock spread to managed care peers. Energy equities tracked oil higher. Tech stocks faced multiple compression on AI capex concerns despite revenue beats.
The S&P 500 closed January up 1.8% despite todays weakness. Energy and industrials led. Technology and healthcare lagged. Index held above 6,900.
Nasdaq rose 1.9% in January. Technology underperformed today as AI infrastructure spending concerns emerged. Healthcare weakness from UnitedHealth pressured the index.
Stocks That Won The Week
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
$TXN
+11.71%
Q4 revenue $4.42 billion, EPS $1.27, both slightly below estimates. Q1 guidance $4.5 billion revenue midpoint and $1.35 EPS, above consensus. Signals semiconductor demand stabilization.
VERIZON
$VZ
+11.51%
Q4 added 616,000 postpaid phone subscribers versus 417,250 expected. Guided 2026 adjusted EPS $4.90-$4.95 versus $4.76 consensus. Free cash flow outlook $21.5 billion versus $20.96 billion expected.
AT&T
$T
+10.50%
Q4 EPS $0.52 versus $0.46 expected. Revenue $33.5 billion versus $32.87 billion consensus. Announced $45 billion shareholder return plan 2026-2028. Strong fiber and 5G subscriber additions.
Stocks That Lost The Week
APPLOVIN
$APP
-10.75%
Mobile gaming and adtech valuation compression. High-multiple growth names faced selling pressure. Concerns over advertising spend sustainability into 2026.
UNITED HEALTH
$UNH
-19.05%
Trump administration proposed 0.09% Medicare Advantage rate increase for 2027 versus 5-6% expected. Forecasts first annual revenue decline since 1989. Medical care ratio 88.9% versus 85.5% prior year.
PALANTIR
$PLTR
-12.49%
Profit-taking after 138% gain in 2025. Rotation out of software into semiconductors. Valuation pressure at 341x trailing P/E. No company-specific negative catalysts.
Sector Snapshot
Sector | Weekly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
Technology - $XLK | -1.55% | -1.20% |
Energy - $XLE | +3.09% | +14.15% |
Financials - $XLF | +0.24% | -2.54% |
Industrials - $XLI | +0.72% | +6.91% |
Healthcare - $XLV | -1.90% | -0.08% |
Energy led on crude supply tightness and geopolitical premium. Technology lagged as investors questioned AI infrastructure returns despite solid earnings from chip names. Healthcare sold off on Medicare Advantage rate proposal hitting managed care margins across the sector. Financials flat as banks absorbed modest yield curve shifts without clear directional catalyst. Industrials gained on stable demand indicators and infrastructure spending expectations.
Earn Your Certificate in Real Estate Investing from Wharton Online
The Wharton Online + Wall Street Prep Real Estate Investing & Analysis Certificate Program is an immersive 8-week experience that gives you the same training used inside the world’s leading real estate investment firms.
Analyze, underwrite, and evaluate real estate deals through real case studies
Learn directly from industry leaders at firms like Blackstone, KKR, Ares, and more
Earn a certificate from a top business school and join a 5,000+ graduate network
Use code SAVE300 at checkout to save $300 on tuition.
Program starts February 9.
Crypto Recap
Warsh nomination triggered dollar strength and broad risk-off flows across digital assets. Bitcoin tested $83,000 support as institutional positioning scaled back. Altcoins sold harder than majors as leverage unwound. Metals volatility spilled into crypto markets through correlated macro positioning. Thin liquidity amplified moves as speculative capital rotated toward safety.
Performance Overview
Asset | Weekly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin ($BTC) | -4.20% | -3.64% |
Ethereum ($ETH) | -7.32% | -8.83% |
Solana ($SOL) | -4.91% | -5.57% |
XRP ($XRP) | -9.11% | -5.25% |
Mover Of The Week
XRP
XRP dropped hardest among major cryptos as regulatory clarity hopes faded and speculative positioning unwound. Token had rallied earlier in January on expectations Trump administration would bring faster SEC resolution. When broader risk-off hit from Warsh news, XRP's elevated leverage in derivatives markets amplified the selloff. Higher beta to macro shifts than BTC or ETH.
Commodities Recap
Today delivered the worst precious metals crash in decades. Gold fell 4.11% weekly but dropped 12% intraday to below $4,941, largest decline since early 1980s. Silver collapsed 22.65% weekly with 36% intraday losses from $120 to $75, worst day since 1980. Forced liquidation, not profit-taking. Margin calls cascaded through leveraged positions. Oil diverged, up 8.40% on supply discipline and geopolitical tension. Copper down 1.54% after Thursday record above $14,000.
Asset | Weekly Change | YTD Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold - $XAUUSD | -4.11% | +12.93% | Warsh hawkishness ends safe haven bid |
Oil - $CL1! | +8.40% | +14.63% | Geopolitical risk lifts crude prices |
Copper - $HG1! | -1.54% | +4.16% | Thursday record followed by retreat |
Silver - $XAGUSD | -22.65% | +16.64% | Margin calls trigger mass liquidation |
Macro Drivers
Warsh nomination triggered metals liquidation. Viewed as hawkish on rates, skeptical of aggressive easing. Dollar rallied, raising opportunity cost of non-yielding assets. Silver faced forced liquidation as margin calls hit leveraged retail positions. Oil rose on geopolitical tension and OPEC supply discipline. Copper retreated from Thursday record but remains elevated on infrastructure demand.
Seeking impartial news? Meet 1440.
Every day, 3.5 million readers turn to 1440 for their factual news. We sift through 100+ sources to bring you a complete summary of politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a brief 5-minute email. Enjoy an impartial news experience.
Final Take
The week reset positioning across asset classes. Warsh gave the market a focal point for reassessment, but the move had been building. Metals had run on debasement narratives that assumed the Fed would stay loose indefinitely. That assumption broke Fthis morning, and the unwind was violent. Equities held better because earnings, while mixed, showed actual cash flows and real revenue growth. Telecoms surprised with subscriber numbers. Semiconductors signaled demand stabilization. But tech now has to justify AI spending at scale, and healthcare just took a policy hit that won't reverse quickly. Crypto tested support but didn't break structure. The question into February is whether this was a clearing event or the start of broader repricing. Warsh's record suggests tighter policy ahead, but political pressure, growth data, and geopolitical developments could force flexibility. For now, real rates are higher, the dollar is stronger, and crowded trades are less crowded. That's either the setup for the next leg up, or the first crack in a longer adjustment. The data will decide.
If you value this detailed, weekly market analysis from Prosperiax, please consider sharing this edition with a colleague or friend!
Prosperiax Gold
Prosperiax Gold is the paid extension of the Friday Brief, built for readers who want more than a weekly recap.
Gold members receive two additional emails each week. A Sunday forward-looking game plan that outlines how markets are setting up and what may matter in the days ahead, and a Wednesday check-in that reassesses positioning as conditions evolve.
Prosperiax Gold is designed to bridge the gap between weekly reflection and real-time market shifts, without noise or speculation.