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Your Friday Market Brief

Opening Insight

This week was messy. Crypto got crushed. Bitcoin hit $60,000 at one point. Tech sold off hard because investors are starting to wonder if all this AI spending is actually going to pay off. Amazon said they're dropping $200 billion on AI infrastructure and the stock tanked because nobody's sure the cloud revenue can keep up with that burn rate. Software had one of its worst weeks in over a decade. Then today happened and buyers just piled in. The Dow jumped over 1,000 points in one session. But even with that bounce, the week closed down. S&P off 2%, Nasdaq down 4%. It felt less like people had conviction and more like everyone was just tired.

Market Recap

Equities traded in two phases. Monday through Thursday brought risk-off pressure as investors questioned whether AI capital expenditures would translate to earnings. Software had its worst week since 2008. Thursday pushed the S&P negative for the year. Today flipped with aggressive dip-buying in the best session since May, but breadth stayed defensive and the week still closed in the red.

The S&P 500 fell about 2% for the week. Thursday's session pushed the index to 6,798.40, landing it in negative territory for the year before today's 1.63% rally clawed back some losses. The index tested its 50-day moving average of 6,877 and managed to close just above it.

The Nasdaq fell roughly 4% for the week, marking its worst performance since April. The Nasdaq's worst three-day slide since April had shed more than $1.5 trillion in market value before rebounding today. Today's 1.88% bounce wasn't enough to offset three consecutive days of selling.

Stocks That Won The Week

TERADYNE

$TER

+25.38%

Semiconductor test equipment demand surged as chipmakers raced to verify AI hardware capacity. Strong guidance on data center build-out drove the move.

ASTERA LABS

$ALAB

+14.92%

Cloud connectivity infrastructure benefited from hyperscaler spending announcements. Positioned directly in the path of AI data center expansion.

SYMBOTIC

$SYM

+11.78%

Warehouse automation momentum continued. Retail and logistics capital expenditure remained strong despite broader tech weakness.

Stocks That Lost The Week

ROBINHOOD

$HOOD

-13.28%

Crypto exposure killed the stock as Bitcoin dropped and trading volumes collapsed. Bitcoin's collapse to around $60,000 crushed trading volumes and sentiment around retail-facing crypto platforms.

IONQ

$IONQ

-13.27%

Quantum computing speculation unwound alongside broader tech. No catalysts to support elevated valuations in a risk-off environment.

COINBASE

$COIN

-12.97%

Direct crypto exposure. Bitcoin ETF outflows and collapsing trading volumes hit revenue expectations. Liquidation cascades compounded the damage.

Sector Snapshot

Sector

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Technology - $XLK

-2.35%

-3.02%

Energy - $XLE

+5.89%

+19.12%

Financials - $XLF

+1.02%

-1.04%

Industrials - $XLI

+4.19%

+11.28%

Healthcare - $XLV

+1.21%

+1.83%

Energy led on geopolitical risk premiums and crude strength. Industrials attracted capital as rotation favored cyclical exposure. Technology sold off on software weakness and AI infrastructure concerns. Gains in industrials, financials, and real estate supported the broader market, offsetting pressure in consumer discretionary and tech.

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Crypto Recap

Crypto collapsed. More than $2 billion in long and short positions were liquidated this week as Bitcoin tested lows not seen since late 2024. Institutional investors who bought in via ETFs at an average price of $90,000 are now sitting on massive losses. The selloff mirrored tech's risk-off tone. Today's bounce stabilized prices but didn't reverse the damage.

Performance Overview

Asset

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Bitcoin ($BTC)

-10.66%

-19.83%

Ethereum ($ETH)

-12.48%

-30.63%

Solana ($SOL)

-16.57%

-29.93%

XRP ($XRP)

-11.14%

-20.97%

Mover Of The Week

SOLANA

Solana hit $88.42 on Thursday, about a two-year low, off nearly 40% on the week. Leveraged long positions were wiped out as Bitcoin's decline triggered cascading margin calls. Altcoins were hit hard in low-liquidity conditions. No recovery catalyst emerged. The move reflected broader crypto capitulation, not Solana-specific fundamentals.

Commodities Recap

Commodities split. Gold rallied as rate-cut expectations resurfaced and geopolitical tension provided safe-haven demand. Oil moved higher on Middle East risk despite Iran-US talks easing some premium. Copper hit records Thursday before retreating. Silver got crushed by margin-call liquidations after CME raised futures requirements from 11% to 15%. Forced selling turned correction into crash. Precious metals volatility mirrored broader market instability.

Asset

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Context

Gold - $XAUUSD

+4.20%

+14.46%

Safe haven bid on geopolitical risk

Oil - $CL1!

+2.29%

+10.56%

Middle East tensions lift prices

Copper - $HG1!

+0.90%

+3.34%

Thursday peak before pullback

Silver - $XAGUSD

-4.51%

+6.29%

Margin hikes force liquidation

Macro Drivers

Gold rallied on central bank buying and safe-haven demand despite the market digesting Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination. Oil moved on geopolitical risk from Iran tensions before talks cooled some of the premium. Copper caught a bid from cyclical rotation optimism but couldn't hold it. Silver's crash was purely mechanical. CME hiked margin requirements and forced leveraged speculators to close positions immediately. That turned what could have been a normal pullback into a liquidation event. Broader weakness came from dollar strength and risk-off flows across the board.

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Final Take

The week ended without much clarity. Tech sold off because people are questioning the AI spending story, but today's bounce was big enough that it might have just been positioning rather than real concern. Crypto had a rough one. Institutional buyers who came in at $90,000 are sitting on serious losses, over $2 billion in forced liquidations hit the market, and there's no obvious bottom yet. Energy and industrials caught some of the money leaving tech, but we'll see if that sticks or if it's just noise. Commodities were all over the place. Gold went up, silver got crushed on margin calls. Both moves were about flows, not fundamentals. The market's adjusting after a long stretch of everything working in one direction. The real question is whether today's rally was conviction or just another piece of the unwind. Either way, this isn't over.

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