Your Sunday Market Brief
Opening Insight
Markets continued their December grind higher, defying both overbought signals and investor fatigue. With rate-cut expectations firmly entrenched, sentiment was helped by the slowdown in job creation, softening wage growth, and easing inflationary pressures. This macro backdrop allowed equity bulls to stay focused on a policy pivot, brushing off concerns about market froth or economic fragility. Meanwhile, retail sentiment found a shot in the arm from speculation that SpaceX may IPO as early as two thousand twenty six and the surprise announcement of a Netflix-Warner Bros. licensing deal. It’s clear: optimism hasn’t run out of fuel yet.
It was another constructive week for U.S. stocks, with major indices advancing modestly but firmly. The S&P five hundred and Nasdaq extended their winning streaks as investors welcomed macro data that reinforced the Fed’s dovish outlook. Volume remained relatively light, but price action stayed positive, especially in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like tech and financials. Traders also digested a fresh batch of labor market figures, which helped cool fears of a reheating economy.
The index treaded water but stayed positive, buoyed by stability in yields and continued flows into large caps. Though gains were modest, the index held near two thousand twenty three highs as financials and industrials added support.
The tech index posted a sixth straight week of gains, driven by strength in AI-linked names and improved risk sentiment. Hopes of easier monetary policy kept speculative tech in favor, even as some investors grew cautious about stretched valuations.
MongoDB soared after beating earnings estimates and raising guidance. Growth was driven by strong AI adoption and enterprise demand.
Ulta jumped on an earnings beat and a bullish holiday outlook. Strong demand in prestige beauty and new brand launches boosted results.
Shares rallied after a surprise Q3 beat and lifted full-year forecast. Traffic rose as more consumers turned to discount retailers.
SolarEdge collapsed as weak demand and margin pressures worsened. The solar sell-off intensified amid inventory and pricing concerns.
The stock dropped after losing out to Netflix in the Warner Bros. acquisition. The failed bid raised doubts about Paramount’s growth path.
Shares fell on news of Mitsui buying a twelve point five percent stake, prompting dilution worries. Investors were unsettled by the surprise strategic move.
| Sector | Weekly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
| Technology - $XLK | +2.96% | +25.11% |
| Energy - $XLE | +0.11% | +6.35% |
| Financials - $XLF | +0.83% | +10.50% |
| Industrials - $XLI | +1.11% | +14.66% |
| Healthcare - $XLV | -2.55% | +10.85% |
The Technology and Industrials sectors led again, buoyed by easing yield concerns and strong earnings sentiment. Healthcare was the lone decliner, weighed down by rotation away from defensive names. Financials posted modest gains while Energy lagged, mirroring crude oil’s muted performance.
Crypto continued its upward momentum, with Ethereum leading the way. Risk appetite stayed firm following bullish ETF flows and a rebound in DeFi activity. While Bitcoin rose modestly, altcoins saw stronger upside as traders speculated on further gains ahead of a potential spot ETF approval.
| Asset | Weekly Change | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | +4.19% | -4.04% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | +8.41% | -8.31% |
| Solana (SOL) | +5.06% | -8.31% |
| XRP | -0.54% | +5.17% |
Ethereum claimed the top spot with an eight point four one percent weekly jump, outperforming peers as inflows picked up across altcoin markets and renewed activity returned to the DeFi space. The asset also saw strong support from speculative flows betting on long-term smart contract adoption.
Commodities were mixed this week. Silver and copper extended gains, while gold pulled back slightly after a multi-week run-up. Oil held steady despite supply-side uncertainty. The risk-on sentiment helped industrial metals hold firm, though precious metals paused as yields found footing.
| Asset | Weekly Change | YTD Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold - $XAUUSD | -0.97% | +59.95% | Profit-taking after record-setting rally highs. |
| Oil - $CL1! | +1.04% | -16.38% | OPEC decision, Black Sea tension boost. |
| Copper - $HG1! | +2.63% | +35.50% | Tariff fears and hoarding drive spike. |
| Silver - $XAGUSD | +1.23% | +97.38% | Backed by supply tightness and momentum. |
Investors keyed into slowing labor market data this week, with job openings hitting a two point five year low and wage growth moderating. These figures supported a growing consensus that the Fed is done hiking. The CME FedWatch tool now shows over sixty percent odds of a rate cut by March. Bond yields responded, with the ten-year Treasury hovering near four point two zero percent. This backdrop laid the foundation for a continued rally in rate-sensitive assets and boosted risk appetite across equities and commodities alike.
Final Take
Markets continued their grind higher this week, but the mood wasn’t celebratory — it was strategic. Investors are clearly positioning ahead of next week’s Fed decision, balancing confidence in a rate cut and caution about what it actually signals. This week’s mild moves in equities, continued rally in commodities like silver and copper, and widening market breadth suggest the rally is maturing — not just riding tech strength anymore.
The broader takeaway? Sentiment is no longer being driven by euphoria or panic. Instead, it’s about preparation. Traders, funds, and even retail investors are watching the Fed and macro data with intent, waiting for the final green light that confirms: the pivot is real, and risk is back. The test is coming next week. The question is whether the market has already priced in good news — or if there’s one last rally left in the tank to finish two thousand twenty five strong.
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